Economic forecasting is an art and all who practice it are merely players. That having been said there is little doubt that the latest OBR economic forecast gives the Coalition more to crow about than the Labour Opposition. The odds of the Coalition’s deficit reduction strategy, or in fancy language the Consolidation, working out is now over 50 percent, employment will remain high, the economy will start to re-balance, in the jargon, and all should be well and improving when the next General Election is upon us. After all, as we all know economic growth is cyclical, recessions are followed by recoveries, one is taking place, and all is well with the world.
It takes some believing. Exports bounce ahead with an annual growth rate of 6 percent and investment is sharply upwards despite the fragility of currencies and uncertainties in world trade. It might be right though and as my mother used to say, there really are fairies at the bottom of the garden. Why don’t I see them then, if that’s the case. You don’t see them because they only come put to play in the night, when you are asleep. And no, no camping out in the garden
Might all this happen? Yes it might but then on the other hand it might not. For the moment the Coalition has the better of the argument and yahboo is not an answer. There are many good tactical reasons for vagueness and indecision on the Opposition benches but it disappoints. Were Labour really to believe that growth will grind along in the valley of despair and unemployment and short time working is our fate, what do they propose to save us? If by a freak of fortune Labour became the Government in a few weeks time, what would it do? What for goodness sake is the Labour Party’s platform?
I don’t expect to receive an answer and for this vapidity I blame Ed Milliband. Leaders come in many shapes and sizes but one thing is for certain: they must be Pathfinders. By all means consult, detail is a virtue, listening is good BUT you are the leader and what do you say? Where do you wish to lead the Labour Party? What is your opinion? All these questions can be answered without detailed policies with all the t’s crossed. Tell us where you are and where you are going with this. And for God’s sake do it soon. A few more weeks of empty generalisations and you are lost for ever. Who really, in their mind of minds, wishes to go down in history as the Ian Duncan Smith of the Labour Party. Surely one Ian Duncan Smith is enough. Fail now and you are lost for ever.